Ghana is projected to end 2025 with inflation falling into single digits, potentially dropping below the Bank of Ghana’s revised year-end target of 12%, according to Deloitte’s latest West Africa Inflation Update.
- Ghana’s inflation rate projected to fall below the Bank of Ghana’s year-end target by 2025.
- Sustained disinflationary trends may lead to interest rate easing, promoting economic growth.
- June 2025 saw significant inflation improvements due to lower fuel prices and exchange rate appreciation.
The professional services firm cited a “sustained disinflationary trend”, which it believes offers the Bank of Ghana sufficient flexibility to begin easing interest rates—possibly as early as the July Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting.
“An ease in interest rates will encourage more lending to the real sector and support further output and overall economic growth,” Deloitte noted.
The report further highlighted that the ongoing implementation of fiscal consolidation measures, alongside additional monetary policy adjustments, is expected to ensure continued downward pressure on inflation throughout the second half of 2025.
However, Deloitte warned of possible upside risks. These include global economic shocks and domestic tariff adjustments, such as the recent 2.45% increase in electricity tariffs, which are likely to raise production costs and prices of goods and services.
Another concern is the implementation of the GH¢1.00 fuel levy on petroleum products, which the firm said poses an “upside risk” due to its potential to drive up fuel and transportation costs.
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Real returns improve as inflation falls sharply
Ghana’s headline inflation for June 2025 fell to 13.7%, down significantly from 18.4% in May. This improvement was largely attributed to declining domestic fuel prices, reduced transport costs, falling food prices, and the appreciation of the Ghanaian cedi.
Month-on-month inflation also mirrored this trend, registering a deflation of -1.2%—the first since August 2024.
Both the food and non-food inflation indices showed deceleration, dropping to 16.3% and 11.4% respectively in June.
Deloitte observed that the continued fall in inflation has significantly improved the real rate of return on investments. Using the monetary policy rate as a benchmark, the real return rose to 14.3% in June 2025, up from 6.2% in the same period in 2024.
Transport sector records deflation
Among the 13 inflation divisions tracked, Transport was the only category to record a negative inflation rate, declining sharply to -8.5% in June 2025 from 19% in June 2024. This reflects the sharp drop in local fuel prices and transport fares.
Within the top five contributors to overall inflation, only the Insurance and Financial Services sector recorded an increase compared to the same period last year.
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On a monthly basis, certain categories, particularly Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, and Information and Communication, recorded inflation upticks, reaching 24.9% and 10.4% respectively in June, compared to 21.6% and 9.7% in May. These increases are likely linked to rising utility expenses.
