Ghana’s economy is displaying promising signs of exceeding expectations in 2025, according to a new report by IC Research.
- Ghana’s economy is projected to exceed GDP growth expectations for 2025, with promising indicators from early quarters.
- Q1 2025 recorded GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year, an improvement from 4.9% in Q1 2024.
- The non-oil sector demonstrated significant growth at 6.8% year-on-year in Q1, despite contractions in oil and gas sectors.
Despite initial forecasts that estimated GDP growth between 4.5% and 4.8% for the year, early indicators suggest the country could outperform these projections.
Q1 GDP growth exceeds expectations
In its latest publication titled “Ghana’s Q1 2025 Real GDP Growth: Green Shoots in Tight Soil”, IC Research revealed that Ghana’s economy grew by 5.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, outperforming the 4.9% recorded in Q1 2024. This growth came in spite of fiscal restraints aimed at stabilising the economy.
DON’T MISS ME: Break U.S. laws and risk deportation, visa ban – Embassy warns Ghanaians
“We foresee full-year 2025 overall growth likely exceeding our upper-band forecast of 4.8%. However, we have opted to maintain our current forecast range of 3.8% to 4.8% as we await the extent of fiscal drag on the second quarter 2025 performance,” the report stated.
Non-oil sector leads the way
One of the report’s most optimistic revelations is the strong growth in the non-oil sector, which recorded a year-on-year increase of 6.8% in Q1. This growth occurred despite a contraction in the oil and gas sector during the same period.
“This reflects strong underlying momentum in the real economy and has significantly boosted our optimism about Ghana’s growth outlook for 2025, despite the downside risks posed by fiscal tightening,” the report noted.
Sectoral Contributions to Growth
Several key sectors contributed to the overall economic performance:
- Fishing: 16.6%
- Information and Communication Technology (ICT): 13.1%
- Finance and Insurance: 9.3%
- Transport and Storage: 8.6%
- Trade: 7.1%
- Crops and Cocoa: 6.7%
- Manufacturing: 6.6%
Agriculture sector surprises analysts
The agriculture sector posted a remarkable 6.6% growth in Q1, driven mainly by a 6.7% increase in the high-weight crops sub-sector. IC Research highlighted this performance as a contributing factor to the consistent decline in annual food inflation since February 2025.
“We note that the impressive performance in the crops sector has yet to reflect the government’s ongoing investments in agriculture, which aim to support lower food inflation,” the report emphasised.
DON’T MISS THIS: Nigeria deploys 197 troops to ECOWAS peacekeeping mission in the Gambia
While the research firm is optimistic about the trajectory of Ghana’s economy, it remains cautious due to potential fiscal constraints in subsequent quarters. For now, the strong Q1 performance has raised hopes that Ghana could close the year with GDP growth that surpasses earlier estimates.
