South Africa has surpassed Nigeria to become Africa’s largest importer of petrol, signaling a major shift in the continent’s energy trade dynamics.
- South Africa has overtaken Nigeria as Africa’s largest petrol importer, reflecting key energy market changes.
- Nigeria has reduced its petrol imports due to expansions in domestic refining capacity including the Dangote Refinery.
- South Africa’s increasing petrol imports stem from domestic refining challenges and rising fuel demand.
This development marks a turning point for Nigeria, which for years ranked as the top petrol importer in Africa despite being one of the continent’s largest crude oil producers.
The transition from heavy import dependence to near self-sufficiency has been attributed to recent reforms in Nigeria’s petroleum sector, most notably the commencement of operations at the Dangote Refinery, Africa’s largest as well as the establishment of several modular refineries across the country.
These facilities have significantly boosted Nigeria’s domestic refining capacity in recent months, reducing the nation’s reliance on imported fuel.
Despite its oil wealth, Nigeria has long grappled with underperforming refineries and inefficient fuel subsidy systems, both of which have disrupted local supply chains and forced the country to import most of its refined petroleum products.
The recent reforms aim to reverse this trend by strengthening local refining output and improving energy self-sufficiency.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s rising import levels are being driven by consistent fuel demand coupled with ongoing constraints in its domestic refining sector.
The shutdown of key refineries and delays in upgrading facilities have limited local production, making imports essential to meet demand.
The contrasting trajectories of the two countries highlight broader shifts in Africa’s energy landscape, where investment in refining infrastructure and policy reforms are beginning to redefine long-standing trade patterns.
The report
The new report by energy consultancy CITAC reveals that Nigeria’s fuel import volumes have dropped sharply in the first quarter of 2025, highlighting the transformative impact of the Dangote Refinery.
According to the study, Nigeria imported 3.1 million tonnes of refined petroleum products during the first three months of the year—a significant decline compared to previous years.
In contrast, South Africa imported 4.2 million tonnes during the same period, officially surpassing Nigeria as sub-Saharan Africa’s largest fuel importer.
These changes have been directly linked to the operational gains of the Dangote Refinery. Since the refinery commenced operations in September 2024, Nigeria’s dependence on imported petrol has decreased substantially, due to steady output from the facility.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” said Elitsa Georgieva, Executive Director at CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
The report also notes that crude throughput across sub-Saharan African refineries surged by 77.8% year-on-year in 2024. Average daily output increased from 382,500 barrels per day in 2023 to 680,100 barrels in 2024—an expansion driven almost entirely by the Dangote Refinery.
With a nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, the refinery ramped up to 550,000 barrels per day by January 2025 and now supplies approximately 60% of Nigeria’s petrol demand.
CITAC projects that Nigeria’s total refined fuel imports for 2025 will fall to 6.4 million tonnes—less than half of South Africa’s projected 15.5 million tonnes.
This marks a pivotal shift in regional energy dynamics, placing Nigeria on a path toward greater energy independence.
The Nigerian Economic Summit Group also forecasts that the Dangote Refinery could save the country up to $10 billion in foreign exchange this year, largely by cutting down on costly petrol imports.
South Africa, meanwhile, continues to grapple with persistent challenges in its petroleum sector. Nearly 49% of the country’s refining capacity remains idle, with total capacity slashed by half over the past five years due to a mix of industrial accidents and chronic underinvestment.
As a result, South Africa now depends on imports to meet more than 60% of its fuel needs, according to Transnet SOC Ltd., the state-owned logistics company.
Key facilities remain offline, including Sapref—the country’s largest refinery, now owned by the Central Energy Fund—which has taken 180,000 barrels per day out of production. Similarly, Engen’s 120,000-barrel-per-day plant, now under Vitol’s ownership, is also shut down.
