African nations are expected to borrow $155 billion in long-term commercial debt in 2026, a 10% increase from 2025, according to S&P Global Ratings.
- African nations are anticipated to borrow $155 billion in long-term commercial debt in 2026, marking a 10% rise from 2025.
- This increased borrowing aims to refinance maturing debt and manage expanding fiscal needs, pushing total sovereign commercial debt above $1.2 trillion.
- Egypt, South Africa, and Morocco are projected to be the largest issuers due to their economic size and access to international markets.
- Access to low-cost external financing allows for cheaper refinancing, but most African countries still depend on multilateral lenders.
The borrowing will be used to refinance maturing debt and navigate growing fiscal obligations, raising total outstanding sovereign commercial debt to just above $1.2 trillion, or roughly half of the continent’s economic output by year-end.
The report, analysed by Reuters says Egypt, South Africa and Morocco are projected to be the largest issuers, reflecting both the scale of their economies and their deep access to international financial markets.
South Africa’s borrowing is driven by the need to refinance prior debt and fund budgeted fiscal programs, while Egypt continues to finance infrastructure and stabilize its public finances.
Morocco leverages its relatively strong fiscal position to support industrial and development projects.
Leading borrowers and the regional context
The prominence of these nations reflects their size, creditworthiness, and investor confidence.
Access to favorable external financing costs, currently at multi-year lows, allows governments to refinance foreign-currency maturities at cheaper rates.
Meanwhile, most African countries still rely on multilateral lenders such as the World Bank, with the annual median debt of the 27 rated countries at $1.5 billion, lower than other regions.
S&P cautions that geopolitical risks, including the fallout from the Iran war, could disrupt borrowing plans or increase costs by affecting hydrocarbon shipping routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
Countries such as Angola, which subsidize fuel imports, could face heightened fiscal pressure if energy prices surge.
While financing conditions remain relatively benign, analysts note that rising debt levels, combined with exposure to global shocks, require careful fiscal management.
African governments are balancing the need for commercial borrowing to sustain growth with the imperative of maintaining debt sustainability amid uncertain international conditions.
