Nearly half of Africa’s currencies are expected to weaken against the U.S. dollar in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and internal economic pressures.
- Nearly half of African currencies are anticipated to weaken against the U.S. dollar by 2025 due to geopolitical tensions and internal economic challenges.
- The African Development Bank (AfDB) forecasts currency depreciation in 21 out of 54 African countries.
- Countries such as Egypt, Ethiopia, and Nigeria may see significant currency depreciation.
Nearly half of Africa’s currencies are expected to weaken against the U.S. dollar in 2025, driven by geopolitical tensions and internal economic pressures, according to the African Development Bank (AfDB).
In its latest Africa Economic Outlook, the Abidjan-based institution forecasts that the currencies of 21 out of 54 African countries will depreciate this year.
Meanwhile, 25 countries are projected to see their currencies appreciate, reflecting a mixed but cautious outlook for the continent’s macroeconomic stability.
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“Several countries — Egypt, Ethiopia, Ghana, Libya, Nigeria, Rwanda, Zambia and Zimbabwe are expected to experience currency depreciations of 6% or more,” in 2025 to 2026. Countries like Kenya, Morocco, and those in the CFA franc zone could post appreciation of more than 3%,” AfDB said.
Global trade turmoil
A global trade war triggered by former U.S. President Donald Trump has disrupted financial markets, heightened investor risk aversion, and pressured emerging market currencies, including those in Africa.
The resulting uncertainty has raised borrowing costs and tightened access to dollar-denominated funding on international capital markets, further restricting the supply of U.S. dollars across the continent.
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Several African currencies have already felt the strain. The Ethiopian birr has depreciated by 5.7% against the dollar this year, while Nigeria’s naira has dropped 2.8% and Rwanda’s franc has weakened by 2.5%, according to Bloomberg.
Notably, amidst these challenges, African nations are increasingly turning to gold as a safeguard for their economies. Countries like South Sudan, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria are either boosting their gold reserves or exploring the possibility of doing so.
However, not all African currencies are struggling. Ghana’s cedi has surged by an impressive 43%, buoyed by the sharp rise in global gold prices amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, providing a significant boost to the economy of Africa’s top gold exporter.
Meanwhile, South Africa’s rand has strengthened by 5%, benefiting from political stability after the ruling coalition successfully resolved a protracted budget standoff.
