Africa’s export gains at risk as 25-year U.S duty-free deal expires

After 25 years of shaping US-Africa trade, the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) officially expired on Tuesday, October 1, plunging African exporters into uncertainty and sparking fears of massive job losses across key industries.

• The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a 25-year trade pact granting duty-free access to US markets, officially expired on Tuesday, October 1.
• Kenya’s textile exports to the US grew tenfold under AGOA, but industry leaders warn the sector could collapse without the agreement.
• Over 66,000 Kenyan workers, mostly women, risk losing jobs as factories brace for shutdowns amid looming US tariffs.
• African leaders, including Kenya’s William Ruto, pushed for an extension, but Washington signalled support for only a short-term renewal.

Introduced in 2000, AGOA granted thousands of African products duty-free access to US markets, enabling countries such as Kenya to build globally competitive industries.

The textile and apparel sector, in particular, thrived under the agreement, with exports to the United States growing from approximately $50 million at the outset to around $500 million today.

“Clearly, if AGOA goes away, we have zero chance to compete with the Asian countries. There is no way we can survive.

“As a businessman, it is not going to be a survival for us. The whole house of cards will collapse very quickly,” said Pankaj Bedi, CEO of United Aryan clothing factory in Kenya.

Women at risk of mass lay-off in Kenya

Kenya’s textile and apparel sector, employing more than 66,000 people, many of them women, now faces its greatest crisis in decades. In Nairobi’s garment districts, workers are already fearful of what the future holds.

“For all those years, this has been my bread and butter. I only depend on this job. So if it is gone, it means my life is gone too,” lamented machinist Julia Shigadi.

AGOA had also provided African nations with protection against sweeping US tariffs, some as high as 10% or more, introduced earlier this year. Its expiry, therefore, threatens not only export revenues but also the broader economic stability of several African economies.

President Ruto’s appeal to White House

At last week’s United Nations General Assembly, Kenyan President William Ruto urged Washington to extend AGOA for at least five years. However, a White House official confirmed on Monday, September 30, that the Trump administration was only willing to support a one-year renewal, further fuelling concerns over long-term stability.

Raphael Obonyo, a public policy expert at UN-Habitat, warned that the impact could spread beyond the textile sector.

“In the short run, it looks manageable, but in the long run, the challenges are going to be devastating and they are going to spill over,” he cautioned.

As Africa grapples with the loss of a trade framework that many saw as a lifeline, governments and businesses are left to navigate an uncertain future in global commerce.