Full details emerge as South Africa risks FATF setback over fresh scandals

South Africa’s long-awaited removal from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list could be derailed by new revelations of corruption and maladministration, threatening to undo years of reform efforts aimed at restoring global investor confidence.

• South Africa was on track to be removed from the FATF grey list in October, following major reforms to combat money laundering.
• New corruption revelations from a policing inquiry may derail the process, according to Stanlib Chief Economist Kevin Lings.
• Remaining on the grey list continues to raise transaction costs, slow trade, and discourage foreign investment.
• Economists warn that unless decisive action follows, South Africa risks damaging its credibility and economic recovery efforts.

According to Kevin Lings, Chief Economist at Stanlib, the country had been on the brink of a major economic win.

“It’s a distinct possibility. We were put on the grey list in February 2023 and have been systematically addressing the 22 issues FATF identified since then,” Lings said, referring to South Africa’s expected delisting at the FATF plenary meeting scheduled for October 24.

In June 2024, the FATF acknowledged that South Africa had made “substantial progress,” following a rigorous two-year reform drive that strengthened anti-money laundering frameworks and tightened oversight of financial institutions.

A successful site visit by FATF officials in July raised expectations that South Africa would soon be cleared.

But optimism has since dimmed following explosive findings from a new commission of inquiry into the country’s policing system, which uncovered fresh evidence of corruption and mismanagement.

“There’s a twist to the story. The latest commission has revealed additional significant issues relating to corruption and maladministration.

“This is exactly the type of thing FATF flagged as inadequate when we were first grey-listed,” Lings warned.

He cautioned that the revelations could lead the FATF to delay South Africa’s removal from the list.

“There’s a risk they look at this and say, ‘Let’s hold off and see how South Africa responds to these findings.’ They’ll want assurance that real action follows, not just another report that gathers dust,” Lings cautioned, according to The Africa Report.

Economic costs and reputational risks

The FATF grey list, which identifies countries with weak systems to combat money laundering and terrorism financing, has carried severe economic consequences for South Africa.

“It’s added a meaningful layer of cost to doing business, particularly internationally.

“More than half of South Africa’s GDP is trade-related, so every transaction now involves more paperwork, longer delays, and higher costs,” Lings explained.

For investors, the symbolism has been just as damaging.

“Being on the grey list is a red flag. You’re lumped in with countries like Nigeria, South Sudan, and Syria—not exactly places that inspire investor confidence. For a G20 country like South Africa, it’s an embarrassment,” Lings noted.

Noting that the impact has been tangible, he said, “we’ve seen reduced investment in our bond and equity markets, less foreign direct investment, and overall sluggish economic performance.”

Hope, uncertainty, and hard questions

Should South Africa be removed from the list later this month, the benefits could be significant.

“It would improve our international standing and possibly boost confidence, especially as the government tries to address other issues like low growth and poor service delivery,” Lings said.

However, the renewed corruption scandals cast doubt on the country’s ability, and willingness, to enforce reform.

“Have we got the ability? Have we got the will? How far does it reach? Is the president implicated? All of these questions are going to come up,” Lings said.

For South Africa, and by extension, Africa’s reputation as a growing financial hub, the coming weeks could determine whether the continent’s most industrialised economy scores a victory or suffers another own goal.