A new US trade warning aimed at countries trading with Iran is putting several African economies under pressure, as Washington signals it is willing to escalate tariffs and review preferential trade access for partners it views as misaligned with its foreign policy objectives.
- This policy shift impacts African nations by potentially increasing export costs and threatening access to U.S. preferential trade agreements.
- The United States has issued a warning targeting countries trading with Iran, proposing heightened tariffs on goods as a deterrent.
- Recent data indicates growing trade relations between Iran and African nations, with a significant increase in exports on both sides.
- Simultaneously, deteriorating conditions in Iran, including severe unrest, amplify the significance of these trade measures.
The United States has issued a sweeping new tariff warning that could reshape Africa’s trade relationships, targeting countries that continue doing business with Iran at a time when Tehran is rapidly expanding its economic footprint across the continent.
The move threatens higher export costs, currency pressure, and potential loss of preferential access to the US market for several African economies.
Iran unrest adds pressure to US policy shift
Iran has been gripped by widespread unrest triggered by a collapsing rial and inflation nearing 40%.
Protests demanding the fall of the country’s theocratic government have spread across major cities, while authorities have imposed near-total internet blackouts, limiting independent reporting.
Reuters, citing the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), reported more than 500 deaths as of 11 January.
A later update cited by CBS News put the death toll at at least 12,000, though figures remain difficult to independently verify.
Trump issues immediate tariff warning
Against this backdrop, US President Donald Trump said on 12 January that any country doing business with Iran would face a 25% tariff on all trade with the United States.
“Effective immediately, any country doing business with Iran will pay a tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, adding that the order was “final and conclusive.”
The tariff would apply on top of existing US trade measures already affecting African exporters.
African countries already facing higher US tariffs
Under Trump’s “reciprocal” tariff policy, several African economies are already subject to elevated US import duties.
South Africa faces tariffs of up to 30% on selected goods, Nigeria about 14–15%, Ghana between 10–15%, while Kenya and Tanzania are subject to around 10%. Other African countries face a baseline 10% tariff.
For countries that continue trading with Iran, including South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, Kenya, Tanzania, and Somalia, the new measure would add an additional 25% levy on all US-bound exports, sharply reducing competitiveness.
Iran’s growing trade ties with Africa
Africa’s direct trade with Iran remains relatively modest, with exports including agricultural goods, medical instruments, and coal, while imports consist mainly of oil, petroleum products, tropical fruits, and carpets. However, Iran’s engagement with the continent is accelerating.
According to Iran’s Trade Promotion Organization, exports to African countries reached $849 million between March and November 2025, a 77% increase year-on-year.
Tanzania has emerged as one of Iran’s top export destinations, alongside Kenya, Ghana, South Africa, Nigeria, and Somalia.
Nigeria, Iran’s third-largest African partner, trades around $125 million, exporting agricultural goods such as oily seeds, cocoa, and spices, while importing cranes, plastics, gaskets, and processed foods.
Potential Impact on South Africa
Despite South Africa’s limited trade with Iran, the punitive 25% tariff could disrupt key sector, particularly automotive and mining and reduce the competitiveness of its exports in the US, one of the country’s largest markets.
In 2024, South Africa exported approximately $8.2 billion in goods to the United States and imported about $6.97 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of roughly $1.23 billion
AGOA access now at risk
The timing is sensitive for African economies reliant on AGOA, which provides duty-free access to the US market.
Although the US House of Representatives has approved an extension of the programme to 2028, eligibility is reviewed annually by the White House.
African governments now face a narrow policy choice: pursue diversification with Iran and risk US penalties, or safeguard access to one of their most critical export markets.
