Nigeria’s gas shipment diverted to Asia as US-Iran tensions squeeze global LNG supply

A shipment of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Nigeria has been redirected from Europe to Asia after a sharp spike in Asian gas prices created a lucrative arbitrage opportunity for traders, highlighting how rapidly shifting global energy markets can reshape trade routes.

• A Nigerian liquefied natural gas cargo has been rerouted from Europe to Asia after a sharp surge in Asian gas prices created a lucrative arbitrage opportunity.
• Shipping data shows the LNG tanker BW Brussels changed course days after loading at the Bonny Island export terminal.
• The shift comes as supply disruptions linked to tensions between the United States and Iran, along with production issues in Qatar, tighten global gas markets.
• Analysts say the widening price gap between Asian LNG benchmarks and Europe’s Title Transfer Facility could trigger more cargo diversions in the coming weeks.

Shipping data from analytics firm Kpler showed that the LNG tanker BW Brussels, which loaded a cargo at the Nigeria LNG Bonny Island Terminal on 27 February, initially signalled a westward journey towards Europe before changing course and sailing south towards Asia via the Cape of Good Hope.

The diversion came as Asian spot LNG prices surged amid tightening global supply, driven partly by geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran and by a production suspension in Qatar, according to a Reuters report.

Benchmark prices in Asia have climbed sharply in recent days. Data from S&P Global Platts shows the Japan Korea Marker, Asia’s main spot LNG benchmark, jumped by 68.52 percent to about $25.39 per million British thermal units for April delivery last week, its highest level in three years.

By comparison, spot LNG prices for north-west Europe rose to roughly $15.48 per mmBtu for April delivery. Although that represents a strong rally, the widening price gap means Asia has become the more profitable destination for flexible LNG cargoes.

Widening arbitrage between Asia and Europe

Market analysts say this widening spread between Asian LNG prices and Europe’s benchmark gas hub, the Title Transfer Facility, has opened a clear arbitrage window for traders.

“So far, one LNG tanker that loaded in Nigeria last week has diverted to Asia from its initial Atlantic-bound course after spot prices surged,” said Go Katayama, a principal insight analyst at Kpler.

“BW Brussels appears to have changed course from an initial signal toward France and is now heading toward Asia via the Cape of Good Hope.”

The shift illustrates how quickly global gas trade flows can change when price signals favour one region over another.

According to Qasim Afghan, an analyst at Spark Commodities, global front-month arbitrage opportunities have “increased significantly” and now favour Asian markets across several major LNG export locations.

The tightening supply environment has also prompted Asian buyers to scramble for alternative LNG sources.

Government officials told Reuters that India is exploring new LNG suppliers to offset reduced Qatari volumes, while state-owned energy firm Petrobangla plans to issue tenders for immediate LNG deliveries.

Despite Asia’s price advantage, analysts note that Europe could still attract some flexible cargoes because of the deep liquidity of its gas trading market, which allows traders to hedge risks more easily.

The disruption in Qatari supply has intensified competition between buyers in the Atlantic and Pacific basins for available LNG shipments. Asian buyers account for more than 80 percent of Qatar’s LNG exports, making the region particularly sensitive to supply shocks.

For Nigeria, the rerouted cargo underscores the growing importance of flexible destination clauses in LNG contracts and the powerful influence of global price signals on energy trade flows. If Asian prices remain significantly higher than European benchmarks in the coming weeks, analysts say more Atlantic Basin cargoes could follow the same eastward path.